Many measures such as multi-sectoral
National Coronavirus Preparedness Group and social
interventions were instituted by Nigerian governments
before and after the first case of COVID-19 was
recorded on February 27, 2020. Impacts of these
intervention measures on COVID-19 transmission were
assessed within the first 82 days in Nigeria and in the
first 38 days in Kano state. These approaches toward
containing the spread of COVID-19 include nonpharmaceutical intervention measures, multi-sectoral
Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) was activated at
Level 3, expansion of labouratories, RRT deployment
etc which resulted in the slow transmission trajectory
and low COVID-19 burden and death burden on the
people. The analysis of the COVID-19 data obtained
between February 27 and May 20, 2020 (82 days period)
showed that Nigeria recorded lower death burden of
one (1) per million population compare with other
African countries like South Africa with death burden
of 6 death per million population each and other
countries, death burden increases (> 1) as COVID-19
cases increases. Similarly, COVID-19 burden of Nigeria
is 33 cases per million which is also very low compared
to other African countries and other highly affected
countries like US and UK. By 20th May 2020, 6,677
confirmed cases and 202 deaths and 1,860 recovered
from COVID-19 have occurred in Nigeria. At day 82,
the exponential growth rate calculated was 0.05. The
result of this study also provides epidemiological
analysis of the first 40 days of COVID-19 outbreak in in
the most populous state in Nigeria-Kano. Using this
logistic model equation [y= 1.5*(1.3)x] generated from
the curve, a total of 31,158 infections was averted in
Kano state by the federal and state government
intervention measures and citizen level of compliances
as well as additional effort of WHO official which
altogether brought the total infections to 900 as against
32,058 infections predicted by logistic model. Simulation
of the same model predicts total infections of 6,092,642
by 9th of June more than half of state population in the
absence of aforementioned interventions while by 11th
of June 11,435,884 infections (state population). The
results show COVID-19 positive cases are higher in the
states with high population densities
Keywords : Africa; COVID-19; Nigeria; coronavirus; reproduction number; logistic model; non pharmaceutical interventions; Rapid Response Team (RRT).