A semi-Markov model in continuous state and
time to study the daily running of turbine has been
presented in this paper. The model was used to
determine the optimal performance of turbines of
Shirorohydro generation station Niger State, Nigeria for
a period of 4 years. The result shows that there is no
transition from state 1 to state 4, state 2 to state 4 and
The result also shows that the graphs of interval
transition probabilities from one state to another are
gradually increasing. From the virtual transition
probabilities, the graph is gradually decreasing and after
has the percentages of 99%, 96%, 92% and 99% , which
shows that when turbine is in any of the state it stay
there for a longer period before transition was made to
another state. These results are important information to
the engineers and utility staffs to plan against the failure
of the turbines.
Keywords : Semi-Markov Process, Continuous Time, Probability, Interval Transition probability, Waiting Time, Holding Time, Turbine, Virtual Transition probability.